Dubai and Abu Dhabi’s major property developers are on track to post robust second-quarter profits, with analysts projecting continued double-digit growth—even as the pace of property price increases begins to ease.
According to market experts, Emaar Properties in Dubai and Aldar Properties in Abu Dhabi are set to benefit from large project backlogs, steady construction progress, and resilient buyer demand.
Indarpreet Singh, AVP for Research at Bahrain’s Sico Bank, maintains buy ratings on both developers, noting that their combined order backlog exceeds AED 183 billion ($40 billion). “As construction execution accelerates, these companies are expected to recognize a higher share of revenue, which will translate into stronger earnings,” Singh stated.
Sico forecasts:
- Emaar Properties will post a 56% YoY rise in Q2 net profit to AED 3.8 billion
- Emaar Development will see an 83% profit increase to AED 2.2 billion
- Aldar Properties is projected to report AED 1.8 billion in profit, up 17% YoY
This would surpass or closely match Q1 2025 performance, where Emaar and its development arm recorded 27% and 48% YoY profit growth, respectively. Aldar previously reported 25% growth in Q1.
Nikhil Mishra, senior research analyst at Al Ramz Capital, also expects sustained strength, supported by “solid revenue backlogs, milestone-based revenue recognition, and strong sales momentum.” He maintains overweight ratings (equivalent to buy) on both firms.
As of this week:
- Emaar’s stock is up 17% YTD, trading at AED 13.85
- Aldar is up 18% YTD, priced at AED 9.06
Market Trends: Growth Continues, but Momentum Slows
Despite global uncertainties, such as the recent Iran-Israel conflict, UAE’s property sector remains largely unaffected, says Haider Tuaima, Managing Director and Head of Research at ValuStrat.
“Dubai is nearing a cyclical price peak,” Tuaima notes. “Prices are still rising, but at a slower pace. Developer costs—land, materials, and labor—are also climbing, which could impact future margins.”
- Dubai’s villa capital value growth has slowed to 1.9% MoM, down from 2.4% a year earlier
- ValuStrat’s price index hit an all-time high of 218 in May, up 25% YoY
Although prices have more than doubled since 2021, sales activity is cooling, particularly for ready-to-move-in homes. The number of available ready units is shrinking, and time on market is increasing—a signal that sellers are struggling to achieve their asking prices.
Currency Impact and Cost Pressures
The U.S. dollar’s 11% slide in 2025 against major global currencies is making imported construction materials more expensive, especially from non-dollar-pegged economies. At the same time, Dubai property prices are effectively lower for buyers from those regions.
“It’s difficult to isolate the effect of currency alone,” said Mishra. “Multiple factors—macroeconomic, sector-specific, and company-level—drive demand and cost behavior.”
Outlook: Strong Fundamentals with Signs of Stabilization
While the UAE real estate sector is clearly entering a more mature growth phase, developers with large, diversified pipelines and strong brand equity—like Emaar and Aldar—are expected to weather price normalization and continue posting solid results through 2025.
